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接下来猪价还会继续涨吗？

从全国近半个月猪价走势来看，自6月份以来，猪价呈现缓慢爬坡走势，猪价用了10天时间，上涨幅度仅有0.1元/公斤，可以说基本没有变化。那接下来猪价会走向何方，每年的夏季断档期效应是否会出现？

6月下旬，猪价或开启第二波上涨

　　我们回顾近几年猪价，6月在大部分情况下属于调整期，如果5月猪价大幅反弹，则6月以回调为主，如果5月猪价稳定为主，则6月有望上涨。且在6月，南北方价差缩小，生猪调运困难。本人认为6月下旬猪价有望迎来一波上涨，当下生猪市场适重猪源偏少，但终端消费也不景气。屠宰场收猪标准越来越严格，借打压牛猪来控制整体涨价节奏。但春节前后仔猪成活率偏低，仍将继续影响着6—8月生猪供应能力。

断档期效应依旧，最高点不超过13元/公斤

　　所谓断档期说法，在2014年在行业内首次被提出，断档期主要是因为冬季尤其是春节前后仔猪成活率偏低造成第二季度生猪供应下降，因此导致在6—8月消费淡季猪价上涨现象。而就目前行情特征来看，今年断档期效应依旧还会出现，但由于目前生猪整体处于过剩阶段，本人预测今年6—8月全国生猪均价最高点在13元/公斤，猪价最高点明显低于其他年份，高峰点在8月下旬出现概率较。

去产能缓慢，2019年猪市仍有危机

　　目前，15公斤外三元仔猪价格仍在400元/头，规模猪场和养猪企业通过外销仔猪仍然还可获利，母猪大规模淘汰仍未开始，就猪易调查结果，只是部分自繁自养猪场在年初淘汰缩减了一部分产能，规模化猪场，养猪企业母猪并没真正淘汰多少，而6—8月猪价上涨，更是阻碍了能繁母猪的淘汰速度，因此我们判断2019年猪市依然存在危机，这个猪周期真正的谷底还没到来。

在此，我们提醒广大猪友几点：

1、母猪大范围去产能还没开始，因此，补充后备母猪要谨慎；

2、夏季到来，牛猪和标猪价格差拉大，虽然接下来猪价还有一定上涨空间，但切不可盲目压栏，屠宰场针对牛猪的压价幅度越来越大；

3、切忌跟风，阶段性的集中出栏将是短期猪价下跌的主要原因。

文章转自【猪e网】

We are an independent branding studio and creative business partner for clients who are ready for extraordinary solutions. To deliver such solutions we dig deep into a brand’s essence and values, clearly understand them, and then inject them into the design.

This is the surest way to move beyond design for design’s sake and give consumers a brand that is both undeniably relevant and incredibly engaging. Sure, it’s also a process by which we’ve been competing with world’s leading brands and won many respectable awards. But awards aren’t our goal. While they provide proof of our creativity, the appreciation of our works and offer credibility that comes from peer recognition, they are ultimately a means to acquiring ever more difficult challenges. And that is ultimately what get’s us up in the morning:the thrill of working with clients to try and tackle increasingly challenging branding problems that then lead to successful businesses for clients. Intrigued? Why not give us a shout today and see how we can transform your brand and your business.

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